October Real Estate Sneak Peek
The Canadian real estate market heads into fall with a mix of optimism and caution. After more than two years of rising interest rates, early signs of stabilization are finally visible. Bond yields have eased slightly, setting the stage for modest mortgage rate cuts from major lenders, while new listings continue to climb across most urban markets. Buyers, however, remain selective, waiting for deeper rate relief or price adjustments before committing.
Mortgage Rates & Affordability
Fixed-rate mortgages have inched lower as yields pull back, while variable rates remain sticky but may soften if the Bank of Canada signals another policy cut before year-end. Even a quarter-point reduction can make qualifying slightly easier under the stress test, but affordability remains stretched in most major markets. Homeowners facing renewals in late 2025 should start shopping early—some lenders now allow 120–180 day rate holds, which can lock in lower offers if markets shift.
Market Pulse: Regional Highlights
Toronto and Vancouver continue to see mid single-digit price declines year-over-year, though not the steep 25% headlines circulating online. Inventory is up, giving buyers more negotiating power and sellers more reason to adjust expectations. Calgary and Edmonton buck the trend with steady or rising prices, driven by stronger migration and affordability relative to Ontario and B.C. Smaller urban centres, particularly in Atlantic Canada and parts of the Prairies, remain resilient but are showing signs of cooling.
Buyer & Seller Psychology
Confidence is gradually returning, but caution rules. Many potential buyers are holding pre-approvals, watching for rate signals before jumping back in. Sellers are increasingly offering price flexibility and longer closing terms, especially on mid- to high-end properties. For investors, cash flow still depends heavily on financing terms—positive yield is difficult unless equity or short-term rental income offsets higher borrowing costs.
Looking Ahead
The next few months may bring modest momentum if rate expectations hold and seasonal demand improves. But long-term fundamentals—income growth, population gains, and construction bottlenecks—remain the real drivers of supply and pricing. For now, the October outlook is one of gradual adjustment, not correction: softer rates, better selection, and a slower but healthier balance between buyers and sellers.
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